NVO Novo Nordisk A/S is trading at a discount.
While some might think of juicy burgers and crunchy chicken tendies when reading 'discount', it is actually Novo trading at a discount. Since the crazy market overreaction to Novo's latest GLP-1 drug study results, it has become evident, that Novo Nordisk is heavily undervalued.
While Novo can do better communicating the results of the REDEFINE trial (press release on 20th of Dec. 2024) and the study design itself (flexible protocol), Novos care for heavy guys and gals is heart melting. The drugs are good. One might even go to the cops for being robbed of their pounds so fast:
Cagrisema showed superior performance, outdoing monotherapy of both Semaglutide or Cagrilintide significantly.
The December Dump: Weight loss was reported in percent, instead of change in the BMI and BFP. Test subjects assigned could choose their own dosage (patient-friendly flexible protocol) and weren't administered accordingly to individual medical stats.
Quote NVO: "The REDEFINE 1 trial was based on a flexible protocol, allowing patients to modify their dosing throughout the trial. After 68 weeks, 57.3% of patients treated with CagriSema were on the highest dose compared to 82.5% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg and 70.2% with semaglutide 2.4 mg.
When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment1, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 11.8% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.1% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 2.3% with placebo alone."
While the stock took a record single day hit, Novo Nordisk sales and future sales regarding weight loss drugs are only to rise further.
countries by obesity rate - 0% to 50% range
The market and the margins are just as massive as the people about to receive prescription of Cagrisema. Cagrisema is a subcutaneous injection, once per week. Insurance companies are pickung up on the trend to treat very well fed folks with GLP-1 drugs, as it's the easiest, safest and most cost effective way to care for obese people. Obesity causes manny comorbidities, and overweight people make up for vast majority of health insurer spending. Health insurance expenditures didn’t went up all while increasing spending in the weightloss and obesity care sector. So increasing efforts effectively in obesity care will only win insurers clients.
BULLISH. If in doubt just ask yourself, if there is the reason not to have a snack, if you can loose roughly a fifth of your bodyweight in less than 1.5 years.
Earnigs at 05/02.
Position: CALLs 17/01 USD 86 and 21/02 USD86; USD92.
EDIT and updates regarding some comments and recent published news:
'Tariff man‘ Novo Nordisk has just bought factories for USD16.5 B of Catalent in the US This comes as an answer to the high demand for weight loss drugs, but will bypass any tariffs by Mango man.
Catalent deal Catalent has been a contractor for Novo Nordisk and has now been acquired for USD16.5B USD11B for three medical drug manufacturing facilities. NVO is increasing it‘s US foothold to fulfill the high demand. Bullish.
Medicare price negotiations:
Prices for 15 drugs, which are proven effective will be included in the US-Medicare price negotiations, cause they are considered expensive.
That's two more years high yield of Ozempic. Meanwhile demand stays high.
High-Dosage Ozempic grants 20.7% loss of overall bodyweight.
No need for a new FDA approval, just triple the recommended dose of 2.4mg Semaglutide. Results of this study with n=1,407 Patients will be published during this year.
'Ozempic-cliff-off' Ozempic is patented until 2031. NVO develops another GLP-1 for sure.
Meanwhile Cagrisema is entering the market. (22.7% bodyweight reduction over 68 weeks)
So Cagrisema is basically a combination of Semaglutide (GLP-1 analogon) Cagrilintide, an insulin cosynergetic peptide. Cagrilintide, which is long acting synthetic version and analogon of Amylin, basically slowing down digestion and dampening the Glucose spikes (and then crashing) and thus reduce Insulin secretion. While doing so it offsets insulin resistance. Patients feel noticably less hungry, which is a big part in weight loss.
Cagrisema not only achieves tremendous weight loss, it's also a very managable weight loss for patients. The Combination of Semaglutide and Cagrilintide itself is a formulation. Pharmaceutical patents are granted for new, useful, and non-obvious inventions - it's NVOs new money printer. It's safe, it's easy, Insurers love it and it will Make Adipose Guys/Gals Anneal that fat off.