$FBLG News Date (Prediction), SEPA Update, Institutional Activity
Evaluation on likely catalyst date for $FBLG
After reviewing standard biopharma industry practice with regard to analyst days, I believe that the most likely date we can expect a press-release is on February 12th (the date of the analyst day).
In all cases, biopharma companies publish press-releases, 8Ks, or both to accompany their analyst day.
- In my opinion, the question is no longer if the news will come; the question is what the news will entail.
- Naturally, we hope that they have significant updates to deliver which should trigger an appreciation in the share-price.
Whilst in most cases these companies publish the accompanying press-releases at around 9AM ET, it is possible that the accompanying press-release for Fibrobiologics' analyst day is published at a later point within trading hours.
Consequently, I will be holding through the day in anticipation of the news as it could come at any point.
Once either the 8K or press release is published, I will personally evaluate whether I think the news is enough to trigger an appreciation in the share-price, whilst also considering general market response to the news.
DISCLAIMER: The updates delivered may end up lacking any significant catalysts. For example, they could just be delivering a timeline for their pipeline. This is where this play derives its speculative element from. However, given the low downside risk ($1.53 at callout), I personally believe that the risk-reward is attractive enough to warrant this speculation.
SEPA Update
Less speculation is needed on the status of the SEPA, as an 8K was filed on Thursday explaining that Yorkville Advisors has converted the majority of their promissory notes into shares.
The weighted average price for the 2,055,619 shares they currently hold is $1.58, providing additional confirmation that $1.50 was the floor. I cannot see Yorkville deciding to convert their notes into shares unless they believe the share-price to have bottomed out.
Yorkville has $2,000,000 left that they can convert into notes, however the SP for each conversion is based on a 6% discount on the 5-day VWAP. Given that the share-price closed at $1.93 on the 7th, adding more shares through the conversion of the remaining promissory notes would cause them to average up.
If the catalysts do come next week and the SP runs, there is the risk of both the issuance of a public offering and mass-dumping of shares by Yorkville Advisors, who have now accumulated 2,055,619 shares.
In my view, a rigorous exit strategy is essential to this play.
Institutional Activity EOM January 2025
I have corrected the due diligence report, which said that BlackRock entered on the 29th and 30th January, as originally shown by large volume spikes on 1 minute candles (250,000 & 500,000).
BlackRock actually entered on the 29th and 30th December, meaning that these volume spikes were either from another institutional firm entering (for approximately >$2,000,000 worth of shares) or BlackRock adding more to their position.
Ultimately, what this shows is that there is a high degree of confidence from institutional investors that purchasing Fibrobiologics shares at ~$1.60 per share is a good investment.
When considering other factors, including upcoming catalysts, this may also mean that they are also anticipating positive results from the upcoming analyst day.
DISCLAIMER: Whilst I believe these firms could be entering for a short-term position, they may be also entering for a long-term position. Consequently, their entry does not necessarily mean that the analyst day will trigger an appreciation in the price.
Crucially, do your own due-diligence and come to your own decision, factoring in your own risk tolerance.
Regardless if this play turns out to be a winner, a loser, or just a flatline dud, Montgolfier Stocks is looking to create a community based on sourced, forensic due-diligence on low-risk penny stocks, allowing the opportunity for investors to enter into these stocks well-informed, before the appreciation arrives.
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