UFC 292 Fight Predictions!

Hello!

I hope everyone is doing well!

As promised, you guys get an early write up, and an apology for having no write up available last week. This is a bit of a shorter write up than you'd expect though, and the main factor behind that is that this card seems mildly mediocre, like, not bad mediocre, but there just doesn't seem to be a lot to talk about outside of the main card lol.

So, without further ado!

(c) - Champ

D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in Division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

Lets go!

Prelims

Tournament Finale

Lightweight

Kurt Holobaugh (19-7-0, 2 FWS) v Austin Hubbard (15-6-0, 2 FWS) - Alright so, admittedly I didn’t watch this season of TUF, mostly because it looked like the most boring thing ever. However, I gotta type something here, but treat this prediction as low confidence because well, I obviously never watched the show and I refuse to do homework for TUF lol. Holobaugh had a short stint in the UFC that wasn’t too successful, losing to some serious fighters like Barcelos, Burgos and Moises. Outside of his UFC journey, he found relative success in Titan FC, with notable wins against ex-UFC veteran Desmond Green and Gesias Cavalcante, a very experienced MMA Fighter. Holobaugh will no doubt have a tiny bit of an experience advantage coming into this fight, and it was somewhat clear to me after seeing him knockout Jason Knight that he’s still hungry to win. Hubbard on the other hand has experienced a whole lot of rise and falls in the UFC, having been active from 2019 to 2021, he has faced some dangerous fighters and prospects, and at the age of only 31, to experience all of that is no doubt a major thing for one's career. Hubbard is a fairly well rounded fighter who is excellent at mixing in his strikes with his takedowns, he seemingly transitions through positions relatively well, but I feel like his biggest advantage here could be his cardio, he just seems like a bit more of a conditioned fighter than Holobaugh, and the only danger I see Hubbard running into is submissions on the ground by Holobaugh, since Holobaugh has quite a few submissions under his belt. Without putting too much thought into this, and for the sake of obligations to this subreddit, I gotta shove out a prediction here, but feel free to absolutely ignore this dreadful write up.

Hubbard via UD - (1/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Maryna Moroz (+150) (11-4-0, NS) v Karine Silva (-175) (16-4-0, 7 FWS) - This is a fantastic fight and a great opportunity for Silva to take on a fairly well known fighter. Moroz is coming off a tough loss against Jennifer Maia late last year, and it just seemed like she couldn’t quite keep up with the volume of punches from Maia. Her last win however was a fairly impressive one as she took on the dangerous Agapova and caught her in an arm triangle, showcasing perhaps some new submission additions to her skill set. Moroz has always been a very strong boxer, capable of throwing out a lot of volume and maintaining that aggression and activity for the duration of the fight, but I feel like she could very much run into problems with this fight due to her somewhat iffy takedown defence, and you best believe that Silva is going to be looking for takedowns. Moroz does have an experience advantage though, and she is very much used to a full, sold out crowd, so all of those little distractions that might affect a newer fighter, won’t affect her so much. She does have a striking advantage and if Silva is very sloppy with her takedowns I can see Moroz catching her with a naked knee or an uppercut. Silva has really risen to the occasion during her exciting UFC journey, with first round finishes over Ketlen Souza and Poliana Botelho, she looks like a savage on the ground, but also on the feet where she can be fairly sharp and quick. It’s obvious to me that she’s not going to waste time on the feet against Moroz though, she has momentum on her side and it would be fairly silly to strike against an accomplished striker. If she can get a takedown in the first round, I can only assume if she doesn’t get a submission in that round, she’ll just continuously dominate through those takedowns. The only problem I see Silva running into is the overwhelming nature of the crowd, and I know that it’s a weird thing to focus on, but I just feel like it’s been the case a few times now when someone who joined the UFC during the Covid era of the UFC has been accustomed to the quiet of the Apex. All of that aside, I still think Silva is going to get a win, she looks like a genuine prospect and I cannot wait to see this one.

Silva via Sub R1 - (2/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Andrea Lee (#13) (+275) (13-7-0, 2 FLS) v Natalia Silva (-350) (#16) (15-5-1, 9 FWS) - This is another tasty treat where a prospect takes on a veteran. Lee is coming off two tough losses, with her most recent one being a bit of a controversial one as a lot of people saw her win that fight. Lee is an excellent kickboxer who utilises her kicks exceptionally well at range, she’s also quite diverse, able to land from both sides of her stance. She has shown some improvements in her wrestling too, but it’s really going to be her long ranged attacks that will be most effective, because when her opponents enter boxing range, she tends to be on the bad end of the exchanges. That isn’t to say she’s not a dangerous close range striker, because she’s able to throw a flurry of punches quickly, but I feel like she freezes up a little bit too much when she gets struck, and Silva has power in her hands and legs. Lee has been in this position before, facing prospects and dangerous opponents, and at times she has come out on top, but I just don’t quite know what she’s going to do that Silva doesn’t do better. Silva is coming off a gorgeous head kick KO against Victoria Leonardo, and she seems very comfortable throwing that head kick, but I feel like Lee’s high defensive shell will absorb most of those strikes. However, the body is open all day, especially after a few head kick attempts, and since Silva is a southpaw fighter, that liver kick will be there all day. Especially since every time Lee approaches her opponent, or vice versa, Lee shells up and leaves her body exposed. My only worry is Silva’s kicks being caught and tripped, it’s something that Lee is very capable of doing thanks to her Muay Thai background. On the ground, Silva perhaps has a bit of a submission advantage on the ground, having 7 submissions on her record. This is genuinely an amazing fight for the division, and whilst I feel like Silva is a lock, I still hold some reservations because Lee is a constantly improving fighter who looked relatively good against Maycee Barber, someone who has really found her footing in the UFC. I’m gonna leave Silva as a bit of an optional lock this time around, add her to your parlays if you want, but if you want a great underdog, you cannot go wrong with Lee.

Silva via KO R2 - (2/3)

Middleweight

Gerald Meerschaert (+210) (35-16-0, NS) v Andre Petroski (-260) (9-1-0, 4 FWS) - This is one I'm looking forward to. Meerschaert is coming off a tough loss against the rapidly rising star Joe Pyfer, and it honestly would have been a tough fight for anyone. Meerschaert is a bit of a one trick pony, a fairly one dimensional fighter who is incredibly good on the ground, but not so much on the feet. Meerschaert also has the propensity to get taken down often, but it’s mostly because he welcomes any position on the ground as long as the fights’ taking place on the ground, which I honestly think is going to be the case in this bout. Meerschaert does have a reach advantage but it’s barely an advantage if he doesn’t strike. However, that reach of his could help drastically on the ground, especially when looking for submissions because he’s very good at sneaking in chokes from a variety of positions, it’s his signature kind of submission and if Petroski isn’t careful he could be caught in a guillotine after attempting a takedown. Petroski is coming off 4 brilliant wins against not-so-tough challenges, so this is definitely a big step up in competition for Petroski. I have always been a fan of Petroski, ever since his TUF season, the only season i’ve watched recently that has produced some fun talent, and once thing that I think he does exceptionally well is wrestling, and it’s not your standard high level wrestling that he does well, it’s just the volume and aggressive takedowns that he does that drags his opponents into deep waters. I mean, he’s a non-stop machine when he starts, instantly looking for takedowns, finding submissions, landing ground and pound, he wastes very little time in getting into a very dominant position and looking for a quick finish. However, as I said when talking about Meerschaert, it’s highly probably that Petroski falls into a guillotine, especially upon takedown entry, because Meerschaerts reaction time, and his ability to read takedowns is incredible, which is why most of the time he gets taken down, he is comfortable and adjusts quickly. Either way, I feel like Petroski is just too wild and aggressive on the ground to be caught in anything too substantial, and if he does, it will be in the very early rounds where the fighters aren’t so sweaty or slippery. I got Petroski winning this one, I don’t think he’s even hit his ceiling yet and a win over Meerschaert would be massive for his career.

Petroski via UD - (2/3)

Middleweight

Gregory Rodrigues (-350) (13-5-0, NS) v Denis Tiuliulin (+275) (11-7-0, NS) - I don’t see this one hitting the judges' scorecards. Rodrigues is coming off a tough loss against Ferreira, a ridiculously hard hitting fighter who managed to crack the near uncrackable chin of Robocop. Rodrigues has always been an imposing force in the Octagon, walking through punches, marching down his opponent throwing his own plethora of dangerous attacks from all angles, he is the type of fighter that just wears down on his opponents after a while, and I feel like Tiuliulin is going to feel that pressure after the first round which I predict will be a feeling out round. Rodrigues is not only a kickboxer but has reasonably good wrestling and grappling too, typically using takedowns as a way to only control his opponents and sometimes land ground and pound. Rodrigues’ most dangerous attacks are his hook combos, or really any punch combo, and they’re so dangerous and effective because he absorbs so much damage whilst throwing that his opponents are somewhat forced to either stand and strike, or retreat and let Rodrigues continuously pressure them back against the cage. Durability is also most likely going to be on Rodrigues’ side, but I’m a little bit apprehensive about his ability to take punches now, mostly because of how badly he got hurt during that Ferreira fight… I mean, he doesn’t move his head a lot, he has a huge reliance on his ability to take punches, and now that he got clipped and knocked out, I just feel like either we’ll see a very different Rodrigues who is implementing a lot of footwork and head movement, or one that will come out a little bit iffy and perhaps a bit trigger shy. Either way, Rodrigues is still capable of dealing significant damage to his opponent. Tiuliulin is a tough one to talk about because I just don’t think there’s a lot of positive things to say about him, given his record of late. His last win was against Jamie Pickett, and he did display some very strong kickboxing, but I mean, Jamie Pickett is a bit of a rough one at the moment and I just don’t think Tiuliulin has faced the types of opponents that Rodrigues has faced. It’s fair to say that Tiuliulin could perhaps cause a lot of problems in the clinch or even at range, but I feel like Tiuliulin also absorbs a whole lot of damage when he fights, and considering how blindly he strikes, with minimal set up, I just feel like this is going to end up being a bit of a slugfest between these two middleweight warriors, and typically in those kinds of fights, Rodrigues comes out on top. This is going to be a low confidence pick though because I do have my worries, but Rodrigues should have this one.

Rodrigues via KO R2 - (1/3)

Middleweight

Chris Weidman (+210) (15-6-0, NS) v Brad Tavares (-260) (19-8-0, 2 FLS) - This one’s a bit of a head scratcher I think. Weidman is coming off one of the worst injuries we have seen in a long time, in which his leg basically snapped in half by one of Uriah Hall's checks and it looked like it was the end of Weidman's career. Well, here we are. Two years later and now he’s facing someone just as tough as Hall. Weidman has always been a very well rounded, very conditioned fighter with excellent wrestling and great grappling, and that might be his best weapon when coming into this fight, because I don’t think he would want to throw another leg kick out of fear of something happening, that is, unless he has resolved any psychologist stuff that comes from those sorts of injuries. Now, Weidman’s not a young warrior anymore, his whole age and performance is a bit strange at the moment, because normally we see a decline at the age of 40, and with him coming off an injury… Look, I like Weidman, but at the moment, he’s a tiny bit of an unknown, despite how experienced he is. Tavares is one hell of a fighter though, even though he’s coming off two back to back losses against Du Plessis and Silva. Tavares is very well rounded who excels on the feet, has a tonne of power in his hands and also can swarm his opponents in a whole lot of activity, overwhelming them. Tavares also has fairly decent takedown defence, currently sitting at 80% according to UFCStats, so that bodes relatively well for him if Weidman is going to come into this fight with a wrestle-heavy approach. This fight feels like a wrestler versus striker fight though, like, I can’t see Weidman not wrestling in this fight, it’s what he’s great at and has always been great at, but with Tavares being prepared by Xtreme Couture, a team that typically does exceptionally well at preparing their fighters, I can just see Tavares seeing all the takedowns coming. The problem is that Weidman doesn’t just go for one takedown a round or anything, he goes for multiple throughout a round, it’s relentless and it’s going to be an exhausting fight for Tavares if Tavares gives in to the pressure of Weidman and allows himself to be backed against the cage. The way he gets those takedowns is very standard too, and I know that sounds bad, but it’s almost always a double leg takedown, and these days, in this era of MMA, a lot of fighters drill for that, to elevate their hips, to sprawl, and I can almost guarantee that Tavares has worked on that diligently during this training camp, because that’s the biggest threat for anyone who faces Weidman. You guys know for a fact that sometimes there are fights that I just can’t write a whole lot about, and this is one of them… Despite the odds, this fight looks like a 50/50, which usually means that Weidman, being the underdog, is one hell of a bet if you’re looking to sprinkle an underdog in a parlay. However, I still feel like his age, plus those two years off, plus that potential career changing injury has changed Weidman a bit, but that’s all speculation until the fight actually happens… I mean, we all had trepidations about Aspinall coming back from that knee injury, and look what he did. To me, this is a low confidence Tavares pick, I wouldn't touch this prediction because it’s one of those fights that tells me its probably gonna go either way.

Tavares via KO R2 - (1/3)

Main Card

Bantamweight

Marlon Vera (#6) (22-8-1, NS) v Pedro Munhoz (#12) (+155) (20-7-0, NS) - Oh this one is going to be incredible. Vera is coming off a tough loss against Sandhagen, and he didn’t quite look like himself in there, there wasn’t a lot of aggression or output from him to stop Sandhagen from freely throwing attacks, and I bet that he had some sort of mental freeze during that fight. This time around, I don’t think that’s going to be the case because Vera is the kind of person that gets pissed off and motivated after a high calibre loss. Look at what happened after he lost against Aldo? He tore through the division and I feel like he’s going to do the same this weekend when fighting against Munhoz. Vera is an outstanding kickboxer, incredibly sharp on the feet, able to string together combinations and make excellent reads on his opponents movements, and whilst I feel like he didn’t look his best against Sandhagen, it’s pretty damn hard to look good against current day Sandhagen. Munhoz is coming off a relatively strong win against Chris Gutierrez, an outstanding boxer in his own right, and Munhoz looked very crisp in there. Munhoz is an excellent kickboxer who gas a tonne of power in his hands, but I feel like he’s going to struggle with the length of Vera’s attacks, since Vera does utilise a lot of ranged kicks, especially head kicks, I feel like Munhoz will be needing to close the distance and look to land those devastating punches. The only problem with approaching Vera is that he’s also fairly defensively sound, has great head movement and can bring up the knees to collide with his opponent. Vera is going to have to rely on his counters a lot in this fight, he needs to make the necessary reads to adjust and angle away from danger, and I think with Vera being taller and longer, that’s only going to help him a whole lot more. The biggest issue that Munhoz can create for Vera is the grappling though, as that eliminates the reach advantage completely, and whilst Vera and Munhoz both have a black belt in BJJ, I just feel like Munhoz, being on top, will be able to control Vera a little bit more and make the proper adjustments to get out of any defensive submission attempts. Ultimately, I think Vera wins this, he is going to probably come into this fight a bit pissed off, which is great because we get to see him push the pace and hopefully cause Munhoz to make a few mistakes. This is an outstanding fight though and I just can’t wait for it to happen.

Vera via KO R3 - (2/3)

Bantamweight

Mario Bautista (12-2-0, 4 FWS) v Da’mon Blackshear (14-5-1, 2 FWS) - Alright so, this is a bit of a last minute replacement fight, but hell i’m all for it. Bautista is one hell of a fighter at the moment, with 4 strong wins under his belt in the last one and a half years, he has certainly been active and improving every single fight. If it’s not his striking that’s improving, it’s his grappling, and recently his grappling has been in the spotlight with 3 remarkable first round finishes against some relatively tough competition. I have always been a bit of a fan of Bautista’s, he, alongside Ricky Simon, are fighters that I've always thought would go far in the UFC, and if this fight wasn’t short notice, I feel like Bautista would have still won. Even if its short notice now, I still feel like Blackshear will be a few steps behind due to having back to back weight cuts, plus Jose Johnson doesn’t hold a candle to Bautista, not even an unlit wick. However, with that said… Blackshear has shown some improvements in his grappling, including that remarkable twister he used successfully against Johnson just last week, but whilst he looked great in that fight, it doesn’t quite dispel the rough performances he’s had against Zalal and Basharat when he debuted last year, which is why I still feel like Bautista, with his wealth of in octagon knowledge, is still going to figure out Blackshear relatively quickly and perhaps outwrestle him. I understand that there’s a lot of hype behind Blackshear, but I personally wouldn’t fall for it, because ultimately, Bautista is just a more well rounded fighter who has been in the cage with some dangerous opponents.

Bautista via UD - (2/3)

Welterweight

Neil Magny (#11) (+310) (28-10-0, NS) v Ian Machado Garry (#15) (-440) (12-0-0, 12 FWS) - Magny is coming off a hard fought split decision win against Phil Rowe, and it wasn’t exactly a fun fight to watch, there were a lot of fence positions and all that stuff, but ultimately Magny came out on top, throwing and landing a significant amount of strikes and being a bit more active than his opponent. Magny has always been a very pressure-based fighter, he uses his cardio very well and it’s difficult to slow him down because he’s constantly on his opponents, throwing strikes, looking for takedowns, basically grinding them down throughout the fight. The problem with Magny is that there’s sometimes no urgency to finish fights, he’s a bit of a safe fighter who wants to ensure he wins rounds over looking for a finish, and that’s not going to bode well in this fight, and I’ll tell you why. Garry is one of those kinds of fighters that likes to counter because he’s comfortable with the slow and steady retreat and trap. We have seen him many times almost volunteer to back up, only so his opponents can rush in and eventually get clipped with a counter punch. Now, whilst Garry does have a reach disadvantage, his style clashes beautifully with Magny’s, mostly in his own favour too as Magny loves to press forward aggressively, and I can only see Garry timing his punches very well, because he truly is a genuine sniper when he strikes, everything is so clean, so fast and so well timed. The only problem is that sometimes Magny eats punches just to get into a clinch position and that’s where we haven’t quite seen Garry be fully comfortable, because he wants distance and to counter, not to fight for the underhooks and engage in the clinch. Now, Magny is no doubt the biggest challenge in Garry’s career, but I think confidence will be on the side of Garry. He carries himself differently and I feel like his team are excellent at breaking down his opponents and finding weaknesses, and as long as Magny does not pin Garry against the cage, then I think Garry has a very fair shot at getting a win here. However, there is a twist to this prediction post, and that twist is that this will be a low confidence pick, because I cannot understate how dangerous Magny can be, and at those odds, it feels like a tiny bit of a trap, you know?

Garry via KO R2 - (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Women’s Strawweight Championship

Weili Zhang (c) (-330) (23-3-0, 2 FWS) v Amanda Lemos (#4) (+250) (13-2-1, 2 FWS) - I like this fight for one simple reason, and that’s the fact that Lemos has fought incredibly hard to get into this contender position, and now we’re about to see just how good she is. Zhang is coming off two beautiful wins against Esparza and Joanna, defeating both of them at their own game in splendid fashion. I think it’s clear to all of us that Zhang is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division at the moment, and there’s a serious chance that she gets the win this week, but how? It’s possible she’s just going to be a far quicker kickboxer than Lemos, she has the speed advantage as well as the sheer athleticism that Lemos somewhat lacks, but now that Zhang has shown her submission capabilities, that makes things a whole lot more interesting once the fight hits the ground. Now, I don’t think Lemos is going to be submitted by Zhang, but I firmly believe that all of Zhang's improvements in her wrestling and submission skillset will be used defensively to keep the fight on the feet. Zhang seemingly has reached out to the best in the UFC for coaching, including Cejudo, and that training with Cejudo will be ever so prevalent in this fight because Lemos has a very tall stance, and that stance would allow Zhang to perhaps fire up top and level change effectively, because let's be honest, Lemos wants to put Zhang away on the feet, and she certainly has the power for it, she’s the hardest hitting strawweight at the moment. However, with that said, it’s a bit of a predictable equation, power equals predictability, every fighter has a power attack, one that they somewhat use and set up without a thought, and Lemos’s power attack is her right hook, her stance is very grounded, and you can just tell she’s loading up that right hand, and Zhang is going to see that coming from miles away. I’m not completely counting out Lemos though, because she is a rising star and we have only seen her slip a few times, each time she has returned an improved fighter, but is she really different from a few other fights that Zhang has faced? Is she stylistically different from Andrade who Zhang blistered through? Is she better than Joanna who Zhang spent over 7 rounds fighting? Lemos honestly seems a bit one dimensional, and I know that’s gonna bite me in the ass during fight day, but at the moment, she’s just well known for her punches, and if we look at her striking differential, she targets the head a whole lot, and with Zhang implementing her wrestling a lot more smoothly when she fights, I can only see Zhang luring out an attack from Lemos, level changing and just doing work on the ground. I got Zhang winning this one, she just seems like a dominant fighter in the division. Now, I am going to type Zhang via Sub, but don’t mistake this as me thinking she’s only going to win via Sub, because she could also win by KO, but I just feel like a submission is a possibility too, you know? So, in the bets ensure that you do that KO/Sub Double chance.

Zhang via Sub R2 - (2/3)

Main Event

Bantamweight Championship Bout

Aljamain Sterling (c) (-270) (23-3-0, 9 FWS) v Sean O’Malley (#3) (+210) (16-1-0, 4 FWS) - This is an interesting fight, but i’m not sure if I like it lol. Sterling is coming off a fantastic and highly competitive fight against Cejudo, and I think it was after that fight that a lot of those doubters stopped doubting, because let's be honest, Cejudo put on a terrific fight, but Sterling was one step ahead, his conditioning was on point, his cardio never looked so good, and his striking and wrestling were pretty damn great. Sterling’s biggest challenge when it comes to O’Malley will be the striking though, O’Malley is such a tricky fighter to get a read on, he is lightning fast with his punches, and he can be quite unorthodox at times. Sterling’s primary advantage is his grappling though, and I get that some O’Malley fan boys will say “but O’Malley is an amazing grappler”, he’s not. He’s a good grappler, but he’s not on the level, heck, not even in the same league as Sterling, and I think Sterling is going to play the smart game and rely on his grappling and wrestling to completely negate the striking advantage of O’Malley, and with Merab training alongside Sterling, you best believe they have drilled dozens of ways to get a takedown on O’Malley. O’Malley is a strange one at the moment, and I mean that in a disrespectful way. I feel like the main reason why he is in this position is marketability, because it’s so weird to get a championship fight off a split decision which had pundits, media, and judges split on who won… you know? You would think a clean KO/Sub win over someone in the top 5 would have been better, and its understandable that he chewed up Yan in the later rounds, but still it feels like a bit of a gap, you know? Anyway, O’Malley has insane striking and he is quite unusual with it, often throwing without making a read, no set ups or anything like that, his front and head kicks are lightning quick too and that could present a lot of problems for Sterling, especially if Sterling does not set up takedowns by throwing strikes and disabling O’Malley’s ability to throw a naked head kick. O’Malley’s advantage is his trickiness, you can read a novel but you can’t read one with pages torn out, and I think when it comes to O’Malley, his ability to strike without reads and without any prior setups are his pages being torn out.. Or something, I hope that made sense lol. Anyway, I’ve always been a bit of a fan of Sterlings, I mean, look at all my Sterling write ups lol, I’m so far up his ass i’m tickling his tonsils, but I think he has a very solid shot at winning this, he has faced the talent that O’Malley only could ever dream of facing, and well, experience in the UFC is a huge factor too.

Sterling via Sub R4 - (2/3)

And that's it!

Primary Parlays: The Following Fights Do Not Go The Distance: Rodrigues/Tiuliulin, Vera/Munhoz, Zhang/Lemos and Sterling/O'Malley.

The following bets are optional add ons to the Primary Parlay: Meerschaert/Petroski o2.5, Garry/Magny Round 2 Starts - Yes

Lock Parlay - Petroski, Rodrigues (optional), Bautista, And Still, And Still.

Alt Bets: Meerschaert Sub R2 or 3 (Combo Rounds), Weidman Points, Magny Points, O'Malley KO R2, 3 or 4

if you wish to keep in contact with me or follow me on twitter, my twitter handle is @Slayer_Tip, and my Discord is Slayertip#7013.

Lets have a fun and friendly discussion down below about this weekends card!

I hope you all have an amazing day, look after yourselves, and enjoy this awesome event!