Why Blake Must Settle

I believe it is inevitable that case will settle, likely before discover is complete. The incentives around the case make it such that she MUST settle, whether she likes it or not.

The basic issue she has is that by going to the NY Times and filing the harassment complaint, she detonated a scorched-earth bomb on his side that was not meant to be detonated. It was meant to be threatened, and if she had found a way to indicate to Justin his career would be ruined if he did not acquiesce, she may have been successful (Justin did not want to turn over the rights to the sequels to It Ends With Us, but may have, and I think probably would have, if he had known he would have this sort of fight and reputational damage coming, especially if he was paid well and could proceed with his career with his reputation intact). So this was her catastropic strategic blunder - to publish the article in the Times. Perhaps she should have filed the complaint confidentially and THREATENED to go to the Times instead. Regardless, she screwed up big time.

Because once the article in the NY Times was published, Justin no longer had any reason to negotiate, and had every reason to fight, and to fight in a way that was particularly dangerous - as if he had nothing to lose. Because the reputational damage from the NY Times article, written by the then-esteemed journalists that helped to take down Harvey Weinstein, was devastating and nearly complete - he had almost no repuration left to save. He was dropped by his agency, lost projects, and had humanitarian awards rescinded. There is nothing more dangerous than an opponent who has nothing to lose.

Blake on the other hand has so much to lose. She has her acting and film career, her reputation, her various health and lifestyle products, and even potentially her high-profile friendships and her marriage. Now, someone might argue she thinks "I'm okay with losing almost all of that - as long as I am still a rich, famous woman married to a rich, famous, powerful man", who cares? At this point, perhaps she thinks has little left to lose as well based on all the negative publicity.

BUT....it's not just her reputation. If the case proceeds, the likelihood that something comes out in discovery that severely damages a third-party's reputation - such as Ryan's or Taylor's - is very high. Even small embarrassing details (think Amber Heard pooping in the bed - is it really that bad? I don't know - but it is definitely unforgettable. I could be 90 years old and if I happen to run into Amber Heard I will giggle thinking about this). And I don't think Blake wants to take down her husbands reputation - because then she will, and he will, have lost a LOT. Same with Taylor. And I expect these powerful third-parties will bring IMMENSE pressure on her to make this thing go away. Both her husband and Taylor Swift care dearly about their image and their careers - and they are not going to throw them away over this dispute.

What's more, if by some miracle it gets through discovery (for the reasons above, I don't think it will), a trial is even more unlikely. Again, Ryan and Taylor and potentially others are NOT going down with this ship. Just to pick on Taylor particularly, she is known for being ruthlessly effective in protecting her image. She is one of the most succesful, powerful people in the world, and she is not going to allow herself to be dragged through a trial that potentially undermines this position in a catastrophic way (or even a mildly inconveniencing way - she has achieved a degree of perfection in curating her publc image that is simply astounding given the complexity and nastiness of the modern media landscape).

Finally, even though Blake started off with going scorched earth, Justin now has, thanks to TikTok and Reddit and other media, recovered a good deal of his reputation. Not all of it, but enough that he does have something to lose. He also could be harmed by discovery and trial by what comes out. Additionally, and somewhat crazily, in online forums he seems to be winning by so much that it almost feels as if Blake is being bullied ("low-information" people who post about this case seem to often think HE is the one who fired the first shot, and that he is the plaintiff not Blake because she is getting dragged so hard). It def seems he is on the offensive, and she is on the defensive outside of mainstream publications (and they will come around too - it's simply too much fun to make fun of Blake - once SNL digs in on her it will really be over). So, at this point some apology from Blake, or statement that he was not a sexual harasser but there were miscommunications I think will bring this to a close. And my prediction is that it will be soon, because even though it's hard to picture Blake giving in, it's impossible for me to picture Taylor and Ryan being deposed.